At present, the trade friction between China and the United States and the slowing down of world economic growth have raised a series of new issues for the development of economic cooperation in east Asia, especially the economic and trade relations between China and Japan. With this trend, the seminar on Sino-US trade frictions and china-japan economic relations, jointly sponsored by Economics School of Jilin University, China National Economic Research Center of Jilin University and ERINA, was successfully held in Niigata, Japan from November 21 to 22 in 2019. The seminar was held on the basis of 2018 seminar, and was held by Professor Li, (the dean of Economics School of Jilin University and chairman of China National Economic Research Center of Jilin University) and Professor Kawai Masahiro Chairman of ERINA (former Asian development bank financial institute, Tokyo university distinguished professor) under the mutual consultation, initiative, and will take turns to be held in Changchun and Niigata. It will also become a new form and channels for academic communication of our university.
Professor Li Xiao, Professor Ding Yibing, Professor Wang Qian, Professor Zhao Xinyu, Professor Li Junjiu and Dr Zhang Hu from Economics School of our university were invited to Erina to participate in this forum and made academic reports on it. In addition, this forum also invited professor Marukawa Tomoo from Tokyo University, Professor Li Kunwang, Economics School of Nankai University, Professor Watanabe Satoshi, Minister of international studies, Kansai International University, Japan and famous experts from Erina, such as director Nakajima Tomoyoshi, director Mimura Mitsuhiro, director Mu Yaoqian, to come together to discuss the progress and future prospects of currency friction between China and the United States, and the reform of WTO and China's position, tariff barrier and global value chain, reform of international monetary system, changes of financial policies of major central banks in the world and financial cooperation in East Asia. The forum mainly consists of four stages, in which the participants delivered keynote speeches on relevant topics and participated in round-table discussions.
The theme of the first stage is "Sino US economic frictions and supply chain". Professor Ding Yibing, from Economics School of Jilin University, delivered a keynote speech entitled "tariff barriers and China's position in the global value chain". Through the empirical model, it was verified that tariff barriers change China's position in the global value chain, and pointed out that tariff barriers will not seriously affect China's position in the global value chain. Instead, it will promote Chinese enterprises to produce upstream industries products. Director researcher Nakajima Tomoyoshi from Erina made a keynote speech entitled "Sino US economic frictions and TPP". He believed that the problems between China and the US should be solved through the formulation and compliance of multilateral rules, rather than through the escalation of bilateral tariff frictions. Professor Li Junjiu, from Economics School of Jilin University, delivered a keynote speech entitled "the logic and significance of Sino US economic and trade frictions", pointing out the three logics of Sino US economic and trade frictions, which are deep roots, strategic means and endogenous advantages.
The theme of the second stage is "Japan US economic friction and its experience in China". Professor Wang Qian from Economics School of Jilin University delivered a keynote speech entitled "the economic consequences of overvaluation of yen after the Plaza Agreement and its implications for China". BEER estimation was used to calculate the equilibrium exchange rate of the Japanese yen and then the overvaluation degree of the Japanese yen exchange rate was calculated. It was pointed out that the higher the Japanese yen market exchange rate deviated from the equilibrium exchange rate, the more the export acceleration of Japan would be significantly reduced. Therefore, in the current economic game between China and the United States, it is necessary to avoid the influence of RMB overvaluation on China's economic growth rate, and to attach importance to the coordination of economic growth so as to achieve a win-win situation.
Marukawa Tomoo, a professor from the University of Tokyo in Japan, delivered a keynote speech entitled "How China should handle trade frictions with the United States -- lessons from trade frictions with Japan." The speech pointed out that to a large extent, the content of the trade war between China and the United States is similar to the friction between Japan and the United States in the 1980s and 1990s. Although China suffered from the discriminatory tariffs of the United States, the pressure on its exporters was generally not as great as that on Japanese exporters at that time.
Chief researcher Mimura Mitsuhiro from ERINA delivered a keynote speech entitled "the impact of changes in china-us relations on the situation in northeast Asia -- with the Korean peninsula at the center". The speech pointed out that the process of North Korea's nuclear abandonment is likely to be long-term, and China's role in this process will be expanded. At the same time, the budding of the new international order in Northeast Asia cannot be separated from the cooperative mechanism of the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula in the future.
The theme of the third stage is "the prospect of China Japan economic cooperation". Professor Li Xiao, Cheung Kong Distinguished Scholars of the Ministry of Education, Dean of Economics School of Jilin University, Dean of Hengqin Financial Research Institute of Jilin University, and professor of China Japan Economic Research Center of Jilin University, delivered a keynote speech entitled "challenges and countermeasures faced by regional economic cooperation in East Asia at this stage". The speech pointed out that the game between China and the United States as a major power is a long-term game. At the same time, east Asian countries and regions should carry out multi-level economic and trade cooperation in the face of the slowdown in world economic growth and the current challenges to east Asian regional economic cooperation. At the same time, we should actively learn from the friction of the Japan-America trade experience, at the same time of promoting regional economic and trade cooperation, promote regional monetary and financial cooperation in east Asia again, and in the reform of the WTO, the international monetary system reform, "The Belt and Road" initiative to cooperate with the third party market in areas such as explore new channels and new direction of the cooperation between China and Japan.
Zhao Xinyu, a professor from Economics School of Jilin University, delivered a keynote speech entitled "the history, reality and prospect of China-Japan economic and trade cooperation". The speech reviewed the historical process of china-japan economic and trade cooperation, especially the four stages of China-Japan economic and trade cooperation after the normalization of China-Japan diplomatic relations, analyzed the realistic basis of China-Japan economic and trade cooperation, and looked forward to the future of china-japan economic and trade cooperation.
Mu Yaoqian, director of Erina, delivered a keynote speech entitled "Sino US trade frictions and Sino Japanese cooperation from the perspective of regional division". The speech analyzed the causes of Sino-U.S. trade frictions, discussed whether Sino-U.S. trade frictions are separate cases, and whether Sino-U.S. trade frictions are related to regional economic development from differences and other issues, and finally looked forward to the future Sino-U.S. trade relations.
Dr. Zhang Hu, from Economics School of Jilin University, delivered a keynote speech entitled "changes in financial policies of central banks in major developed countries and financial cooperation in East Asia". The speech pointed out that under the influence of uncertain factors such as Sino US trade friction and geopolitics, major central banks around the world, such as the Federal Reserve, began to cut interest rates, but the effect of economic stimulus brought by the rate cut was limited. At the same time, East Asian countries should accelerate the construction of AMRO and other regional financial cooperation arrangements to prepare for future financial risks.
The theme of the fourth stage is "WTO reform: the plan of China and Japan". Professor Kawai Masahiro delivered a keynote speech entitled "Japan's trade policy and WTO reform". The speech reviewed the GATT and multilateral trade negotiation mechanism, as well as the transition process from GATT to WTO, and pointed out that the Trump administration seemed to ignore WTO rules, but in fact made full use of WTO rules to serve the interests of the United States. At the same time, professor Kawai elaborated on the future direction of WTO reform, such as strengthening the function of dispute settlement mechanism, strictly requiring notification obligations, transforming the trade negotiation from the whole member country to the trade negotiation according to the department classification, and reforming the decision-making mode of WTO, etc.
Professor Li Kunwang from Nankai University delivered a keynote speech entitled "China's strategy for WTO reform", analyzed the focus of WTO reform, pointed out the appeal and controversy focus of developed countries such as the United States, the European Union and other developing countries to WTO, and elaborated China's basic position on WTO reform, three principles and five suggestions.
Watanabe Satoshi, a professor from Kansai International University of Japan, delivered a keynote speech entitled "Sino-US trade frictions and the WTO system: arguments for WTO reform and china-japan cooperation". The speech reviewed the process of tariff sanctions and countermeasures in the current round of china-us trade friction, and pointed out that trump will continue to use unilateral trade sanctions and other measures to consolidate his domestic support. Whether the destruction of the Trump regime can be led into "creative destruction" will therefore be crucial in the future.
At the end of each sub-forum, the participants will hold a round-table discussion on the sub-forum topic, ask questions and comment on the speaker's presentation, and further discuss on this basis. The students, from Economics School of Jilin University, attended the meeting, took notes carefully, asked questions and participated in the discussion actively.
The two-day academic forum is full of new questions, new perspectives and new ideas. The participants and students look forward to the forum held by Jilin University and ERINA next year.
(Economics School, China-Japan Economic Research Center)
